An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for inclass lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students’ understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.
منابع مشابه
واسنجی و تحلیل عدمقطعیت یک مدل نیمهتوزیعی در یک منطقه نیمهخشک
Application of conceptual hydrological models is an important issue in watersheds for researchers, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. The hydrological behaviors are complicated in such watersheds and their calibration is more difficult. In this article, the conceptual and semi-distributed SWAT model is used for a semi-arid Nishabour watershed with 9350 km2 area. Streamflow simulation is ...
متن کاملUncertainty quantification of satellite precipitation estimation and Monte Carlo assessment of the error propagation into hydrologic response
[1] The aim of this paper is to foster the development of an end-to-end uncertainty analysis framework that can quantify satellite-based precipitation estimation error characteristics and to assess the influence of the error propagation into hydrological simulation. First, the error associated with the satellite-based precipitation estimates is assumed as a nonlinear function of rainfall space-...
متن کاملUncertainty assessment via Bayesian revision of ensemble streamflow predictions in the operational river Rhine forecasting system
[1] Ensemble streamflow forecasts obtained by using hydrological models with ensemble weather products are becoming more frequent in operational flow forecasting. The uncertainty of the ensemble forecast needs to be assessed for these products to become useful in forecasting operations. A comprehensive framework for Bayesian revision has been recently developed and applied to operational flood ...
متن کاملReal-Time Data Assimilation for Operational Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting
Operational flood forecasting requires that accurate estimates of the uncertainty associated with modelgenerated streamflow forecasts be provided along with the probable flow levels. This paper demonstrates a stochastic ensemble implementation of the Sacramento model used routinely by the National Weather Service for deterministic streamflow forecasting. The approach, the simultaneous optimizat...
متن کاملUncertainty Analysis of Monthly Streamflow Forecasting
Streamflow forecasting is an important factor in water resources planning and management. In this study Feed Forward Artificial Neural Network (FFANN) was used for monthly streamflow forecasting. Three scenarios were considered for modeling. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is used for reducing the model architecture complexity and input data reduction. Twelve statistical criteria were used t...
متن کامل